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The Official Blog of WhaleWisdom.com

Apple’s Historic Rise

Posted on August 24th, 2020

Apple, Inc.’s (AAPL) stock saw substantial growth over the past few months following a brief decline in March when the market, in general, was negatively impacted by the coronavirus pandemic. The multinational technology company moved up on the WhaleWisdom Heatmap to an inspiring ranking of four. Hedge funds were actively buying Apple in the second quarter, as it has consistently outperformed the S&P 500’s performance this year, rising by approximately 69.4% in comparison to the S&P’s gain of about 5.2%.

While Apple initially felt the sting of the economic shutdown in the spring, the negative impact of the pandemic appears to be short-lived, with consumers still quite interested in Apple’s mobile devices, computers, software, and services. It’s likely that even though some consumers may have smaller budgets at this time, Apple has seen positive spending by those influenced by the pandemic’s strong push toward telecommuting, online learning, and keeping home-bound children entertained.

(WhaleWisdom)

Mixed Actions from Hedge Funds and Institutions

Looking at second-quarter activity by the top hedge funds, Apple saw an increase in its aggregate shares held. Total 13F shares held rose to about 352.8 million from 352.4 million, an increase of approximately 0.1%. Of the hedge funds, 49 created new positions, 161 added to existing ones, 29 closed out their holdings, and 278 reduced their stakes. In slight contrast to hedge funds, institutions were selling. Overall, institutions decreased their aggregate holdings by about 7.6%, to approximately 2.6 billion from 2.8 billion.

Impressive Multi-Year Estimates

Analysts anticipate that earnings per share will continue to rise from 2020 through 2022, with year over year growth ranging from about 6.6% to 19.4%. These significant year-over-year estimated increases would bring earnings to $16.45 per share in 2022, up from an estimate of $12.92 for 2020.

(WhaleWisdom)

Some Analysts Are Cautious Despite Stock Performance

Despite favorable estimates for the next few years and a market capitalization that has reached a landmark of $2 trillion, many analysts show a reasonably cautious view on Apple’s stock. Bank of America Co.’s analyst, Wamsi Mohan, noted revenue deceleration in China and maintained a price target of $470 with a neutral rating on the shares. Bernstein Investment Research’s analyst, Toni Sacconaghi, believes that Apple is underspending on research and development in comparison to its peers. However, Wedbush Capital’s analyst, Daniel Ives, pointed out that while the pandemic continues to weigh on near-term consumer trends, opportunity lies ahead for Apple as many consumers are eligible to upgrade their mobile phones to the iPhone 12. Ives maintains an Outperform rating on the shares with a price target of $515.

Positive Outlook

Apple has demonstrated impressive upward momentum at a time when so many other businesses have had growth negatively stunted by the pandemic. While investors should apply caution in decision making, there is a good possibility that the pandemic will continue to be a strong motivator for many consumers to spend on Apple’s products. Growth estimates for Apple offer an additional sign of confidence for future performance for this tech company.

Visa Navigates Pandemic’s Bumpy Ride

Posted on August 17th, 2020

Visa Inc. (V) stock has jumped over the past four months following a brief decline in late February and early March 2020, as part of a broader market drawdown due to the coronavirus pandemic. Despite the pullback, the payment application company has moved up on the WhaleWisdom Heatmap to a ranking of twelve. Hedge funds were actively buying Visa in the first quarter. The stock has closely followed the S&P 500’s performance, rising by approximately 4.4% in comparison to the S&P’s gain of about 4.65%.

Visa is more than just a credit card company and has an intense but complex business model, including a portfolio of payment brands, branded payment product platforms, transaction processing, and debit processing services. Business transactions greatly influence Visa’s performance and individual consumer spending, which understandably were negatively impacted by the pandemic-induced shutdown of businesses, halted travel, and local government stay-at-home orders. While consumers are beginning to again spend on discretionary items, there is new caution as unemployment rates are up, and the pandemic has influenced consumer mindsets to focus more on essential items. Between temporary forced business closures, restricted business re-openings, and changing consumer habits, it has been a bumpy road for companies like Visa to forge ahead.

Varied Results from Hedge Funds and Institutions

Looking at the first quarter activity among hedge funds, Visa saw an increase in its aggregate share value. Total 13F shares held rose to about 583.6 million from 569 million, an increase of approximately 2.6%. Of the hedge funds, 54 created new positions, 169 added to existing holdings, 46 exited, and 212 reduced their stakes. In slight contrast to hedge funds, institutions were selling. Overall, institutions decreased their aggregate holdings by about 2%, to approximately 1.58 billion from 1.61 billion.

(WhaleWisdom Heatmap)

Encouraging Multi-year Estimates

Analysts anticipate that earnings per share will initially fall in the fiscal year ending September 2020, but then predict a rise in 2021 and 2022 of approximately 16.5% and 19.8%, respectively. These significant year-over-year estimated increases would bring earnings to $7 per share in 2022, up from $5.02 for 2020.

Additionally, KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.’s analyst, Josh Beck, has a favorable outlook for the stock and raised the price target to $215 from $190, while maintaining an Overweight rating on shares.

(WhaleWisdom)

Long-term Optimism

Things are certainly looking up for Visa, and analysts’ multi-year predictions are encouraging. However, while Visa ultimately saw a rebound this year from reduced earnings near the start of the pandemic, the uncertainty as to when the pandemic will end is still a concerning factor. Investors may need patience to see higher stock prices.

Nvidia Corp.’s (NVDA) stock has soared over the past few months, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 and rising by approximately 135.3% in comparison to the S&P’s gain of about 3.7%. Hedge funds and institutions were both actively buying the stock in the first quarter, resulting in this technology company being added to the WhaleWisdom WhaleIndex on May 18, 2020.

Nvidia is a multinational technology company and the inventor of the graphics processing unit (GPU), a chip that’s popular in both gaming and professional markets. The company’s product line generates graphics on everything from business workstations and personal computers to mobile devices. While Nvidia saw a dip in performance in March and early April related to the coronavirus pandemic, the company has emerged stronger and has even started to utilize its GPU technology to assist research analysis on the coronavirus.

Hedge Funds and Institutions Are Active

Nvidia has received positive attention from both hedge funds and institutions and has been added to the WhaleWisdom WhaleIndex. Hedge funds increased their aggregate 13F shares held to approximately 166.2 million from about 151.1 million. Of hedge funds, 71 created new positions, 117 added to an existing one, 39 closed out their holdings, and 107 have exited. Institutions increased their aggregate holdings to about 422.4 million from 407.5 million.

(WhaleWisdom)

Encouraging Multi-year Estimates

Analysts expect to see earnings rise over the next three years, with increases in growth from 2021 to 2023 spanning from approximately 40.7% to 20.3%. These year-over-year estimated increases could bring earnings to $9.87 per share in 2022, up from $8.15 for 2021. The company will report its second-quarter 2021 results on August 19, 2020. Analysts estimate the company earned $1.97 per share, on revenue of $3.65 billion.

Analysts See Growth Potential

Rosenblatt Securities maintains a Buy rating on Nvidia, recognizing the potential for growth in gaming and data center niches. Nvidia is actively trying to acquire control over ARM Holdings from Softbank, which may bring along opportunities to increase Nvidia’s overall value. Cowen & Co.’s analyst, Matt Ramsay, views the datacenter as Nvidia’s largest franchise, with the potential for increased revenue in 2021. Cowen maintains an Outperform rating on the stock. However, Morgan Stanley’s analyst, Joseph Moore, recently expressed some uncertainty over the deal to acquire a majority position of ARM Holdings and maintains Nvidia’s stock at a market weight position.

Favorable Outlook

The future holds promise for Nvidia, as the company continues to weather the pandemic and maintain positive momentum. With primarily favorable estimates from analysts, along with institutions and hedge funds buying, other investors have good reason to remain optimistic.

Square Makes Uphill Strides

Posted on August 3rd, 2020

Square, Inc.’s (SQ) stock has seen relatively steady growth over the past few months, after a short-term dip in price in March 2020. The payment solutions company continues upward movement on the WhaleWisdom Heatmap, despite being negatively impacted by the current coronavirus pandemic.

Square not only provides mobile payment solutions but also offers data analytics and other financial and marketing services to customers as the company appeals to many small businesses, it’s not surprising that the stock saw a dip in price in March 2020. However, despite the business challenges that the company and its customers have faced during the pandemic, the equity continues to march higher. Square has outperformed the S&P 500 in 2020, increasing by approximately 107.6% in comparison to the S&P 500’s gain of about 0.5% through late July.


Hedge Funds and Institutions Are Actively Buying

Both hedge funds and institutions were actively buying the stock in the first quarter, and as a result, it has climbed on the WhaleWisdom Heatmap to a ranking of forty-four. Looking at the first quarter activity by the top hedge funds, the aggregate 13F shares held jumped to about 109.5 million from 97.7 million, an increase of approximately 12.1%. Of the hedge funds, 43 created new positions, 59 added to existing holdings, as 45 exited the stock while 45 reduced their stake. Echoing the sentiments of hedge funds, institutions were also active. Overall, institutions increased their aggregate holdings by about 7.7% to approximately 274.7 million from 255.1 million.

 

(WhaleWisdom)

Conservative Estimates

Despite investor optimism, as Square prepares to report results on August 5th, analysts are looking for the company to have lost $0.05 per share on revenue of $1.13 billion. However, despite the expected loss, analysts predict that the company will earn $0.26 per share this year and rise nearly four-fold by 2021 to $0.97 per share.

 

(WhaleWisdom)

Analysts Have Skepticism Amid Strong Stock Performance

Cowen Inc.’s analyst, George Mihalos, downgraded Square to Market Perform from Outperform. Also, Bank of America’s analyst, Jason Kupferberg, spoke out about Square’s recent 56% rally, viewing it as hard to justify. Kupferberg called out the rally in part, due to the risk that many of Square’s small business customers could fold due to the pandemic.

Cautious Optimism

Square’s recent growth and more long-term estimates are certainly encouraging for already optimistic investors. However, the fate of many small businesses negatively impacted by the pandemic still heavily influence Square’s future. Time will tell as to whether the company’s forward momentum can continue.

Facebook Makes a Comeback Amidst Pandemic

Posted on July 27th, 2020

Facebook Inc.’s (FB) stock has risen steadily over the past four months, outperforming the S&P 500 and rising by approximately 12.4% in comparison to the S&P’s decline of about 50 basis points. Hedge Funds were actively buying the stock in the first quarter, causing this social network company’s ranking to elevate to sixteen on the WhaleWisdom Heatmap.

Facebook has encountered some lost advertising revenue in recent months due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on many customer businesses, as well as political drama. It appears there is still considerable interest from customers looking to stay connected with family, friends, and colleagues during a time of social distancing. Overall, the company seems to be weathering the storm.

Hedge Funds Are Active

Hedge funds were buying the shares in the first quarter, helping it to rise on the WhaleWisdom Heatmap. During the quarter, the aggregate 13F shares held by hedge funds increased to approximately 696.7 million from about 667.2 million. Of hedge funds, 70 created new positions, 230 added to existing ones, 66 exited, and 208 reduced their holdings. In slight contrast, institutions decreased their aggregate holdings to about 1.84 billion from 1.86 billion.

(WhaleWisdom)

Positive Estimates for Facebook

Analysts appear optimistic about the company’s second quarter revenue outlook on July 29. Based upon input from thirty-four analysts, year over year revenue growth for the second quarter is estimated at 2.8%, with revenue for the period climbing to approximately $17.4 billion. However, earnings are forecast to have plunged by 31.2% to $1.37 per share. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s analyst, Doug Anmuth, has a favorable outlook for Facebook and raised the price target to $290 from $245 while maintaining an Overweight rating on the shares. Anmuth believes that online advertising spending will come back, though perhaps not quite to pre-pandemic levels. Stephen Ju of Credit Suisse Group also raised the price target for Facebook up to $305 from $258. Additionally, Baird & Co.’s analyst, Colin Sebastian, believes that Facebook will see a recovery in advertising spending; Sebastian has an Outperform rating on the stock with a $300 price target.

Favorable Outlook Ahead

Facebook demonstrated true upward momentum over the past four months, following a rocky start to the calendar year 2020, related primarily to the impact of the pandemic on its advertising revenue. Though there may still be both peaks and valleys ahead for the social media giant, analysts’ estimates are favorable, and investors have good reason to remain optimistic about the equity.