AMD is an American based multinational semiconductor company that designs, manufactures, and markets microprocessors for the computing, communications, and consumer electronics markets. AMD appears to be weathering the coronavirus storm well. Demand for its microprocessors rose as more people switched to working from home. Both quarantines and government stay-at-home orders increased the desire for personal electronics for at-home entertainment. More encouraging yet is that demand is anticipated to continue beyond the pandemic’s end.

Hedge Funds Are Buying

AMD has captured the attention of hedge funds and institutions. Looking at third quarter activity by hedge funds, the aggregate 13F shares held rose to about 155.2 million from 140 million, an overall increase of approximately 10.9%. Of the hedge funds, 57 created new positions, 67 added to an existing stake, 22 exited, and 80 reduced their holdings. Institutions also increased their aggregate holdings by about 3.3%, to approximately 68.4 million from 66.2 million.

(WhaleWisdom)

Abundance of Growth

AMD has a projected 41.7% rise in revenue for the end of 2020, growing to $9.5 billion. Continued revenue growth is anticipated over the next three years, ranging from approximately 41.7% to 12% across fiscal years 2020 to 2023. For the fiscal year 2023, revenue is expected to grow to about $15.6 billion. There is similar news for earnings, with estimates for $1.24 per share by December 2020 and rising ultimately to $2.49 by 2023.

Persistence Brings Favorable Forecasts

AMD’s persistence through the pandemic brings a positive outlook from analysts. Cleveland Research Co. upgraded AMD to a Buy from a Neutral, with high expectations for fourth quarter performance. AMD also received upgraded ratings from Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. earlier this month, citing valuation as well as gains in portable computers and high-performance computing (HPC). Also, Bank of America Corp. (BofA) has a bullish outlook on the semiconductor company, with high expectations for growth over the next two years. In fact, BofA predicts that growth will quadruple to a compound annual rate of 8% from the calendar year 2020 to 2022.

AMD’s Growth Brings Optimism Beyond 2020

The company gained some impressive upward traction in recent months and overall has had an outstanding 2020. Analysts’ ratings and multi-year estimates for the stock speak to a promising future. Also, amid analysts’ predictions, AMD has generated its own positive PR by donating high-performance technology to leading global research institutions and facilities involved in the fight against the coronavirus.
With demand continuing to grow for AMD’s semiconductors, investors have many reasons to include it in their portfolios.

American Express has been negatively impacted by the coronavirus pandemic and related economic slowdown and many other businesses. Pandemic related quarantines, business closures, travel restrictions, and an overall reduction in consumer spending means fewer fees collected from transaction processing, less American Express gift cards purchased, and a higher risk of loan defaults. Through this time, American Express has tried to support its cardholders, recently offering temporary relief that included waiving interest and late payment fees. The Federal stimulus plan has helped the company rebound to an extent, and continued easing of restrictions on business operations and travel offer the opportunity for a comeback.

Hedge Funds and Institutions Are Selling

American Express has lost some hedge fund fans. Looking at second-quarter activity by hedge funds, the aggregate 13F shares held decreased to about 148.2 million from 152.9 million, an overall decrease of approximately 3.1%. Of the hedge funds, 41 created new positions, 104 added to existing holdings, 37 exited, and 100 reduced their stakes. Similarly, institutions also decreased their aggregate holdings by about 0.3%, to approximately 681.6 million from 683.7 million.

(WhaleWisdom)

Mixed Multi-Year Estimates

American Express has a projected 16.6% decline in revenue for the end of 2020, with an estimated revenue growth of approximately 11.1% for the fiscal year 2021, for $40.4 billion in revenue. Year over year growth predictions continues through to 2022 with year over year growth of about 11% bringing revenue to $44.6 billion. There is similar news for share value, expecting that earnings will initially decline to approximately $3.46 by December 2020, later to rise to $6.76 by 2021 and ultimately to $8.83 by 2022.

Analysts Share Concerns over Timing of Recovery

Bank of America Securities, LLC has turned bearish on American Express due to travel recovery’s slow pace. Bank of America’s analyst, Mihir Bhatia, downgraded the stock to Underperform from Neutral due to concerns over the decreased airline and lodging spending. The analyst estimates that it could take until 2024 for travel spending to rebound to pre-pandemic levels. Similar concerns are shared by JP Morgan Securities, Inc., which notes an unprecedented disconnect between unemployment and credit during the pandemic. Predicting that while some credit losses may be averted for companies like American Express, while others may only be delayed.

Long-Term Optimism

Despite a rocky 2020, the story’s not over for American Express, and investors may see a happier chapter to come. While the exact timing for an economic recovery is uncertain, analysts believe it is likely for things to improve for American Express in just a few years.

Upwork is an American freelancing platform that offers jobs spanning many careers, from website developers to accountants. The company appears to be moving beyond the negative impact of the coronavirus pandemic, which brought so many businesses to a temporary halt in the spring. Now Upwork has the potential to capitalize on a shift to a remote workforce, resulting from the pandemic.

Hedge Funds and Institutions Are Buying

Upwork has hedge fund managers and institutions taking notice. Looking at the second quarter activity by the top hedge funds, the aggregate 13F shares held jumped to about 27 million from 24.7 million, an increase of approximately 9.3%. Of the hedge funds, 23 created new positions, 11 added to an existing holding, 16 exited, and 19 reduced their stakes. Overall, institutions increased their aggregate holdings by about 13.7%, to approximately 71.9 million from 63.3 million.

(WhaleWisdom)

Projected Losses Despite Revenue Growth

Analysts anticipate that earnings will narrow slightly over the next few years, rising from a loss of $0.32 per share in 2020 to a loss of $0.15 in 2023. However, revenue will see multiple years of growth, rising to $545.5 million in 2023 from $353.85 million in 2020.

Analysts Share Mixed Feelings

While overall, analysts appear to gravitate towards a Buy rating for Upwork, there are some mixed thoughts, especially after second-quarter results and a transition in leadership. Upwork welcomed a new CFO in August and a loss in earnings despite marketplace revenue being up approximately 19%. MKM Partners LLC’s analyst, Rohit Kulkharni, sees potential for Upwork, noting that the company has only begun to capitalize on an economy that’s more open to a workforce of remote and on-demand workers. MKM gives Upwork a Buy rating and a $20 price target. Meanwhile, Citigroup, Inc. downgraded Upwork from a Buy to Neutral rating, giving it a price target of $12.

Optimistic Outlook

The future holds promise for Upwork. The company continues to weather the pandemic and seize new opportunities from changing workforce preferences. Hedge funds and institutions are buying, while many analysts are optimistic on the long-term growth story. That may prove to be a winning formula for a higher stock price in future years.

Hilton owns hotels, resorts, and timeshare properties throughout the world. The pandemic caused a downturn in travel and restrictions on group gatherings that greatly impacted Hilton’s business, from individual hotel and wedding venue bookings to corporate conferences. The pandemic has had a negative impact on Hilton’s financial performance and the hospitality industry as a whole.

Hedge Funds Are Buying

Hedge funds were active in the second quarter, and the aggregate 13F shares held rose to about 93.9 million from 90.6 million, an increase of approximately 3.6%. Reviewing hedge fund activity, 40 created new positions, 39 added to existing holdings, 29 exited, and 32 reduced their stakes. In slight contrast to hedge funds, institutions were selling. Overall, institutions decreased their aggregate holdings by about 0.6%, to approximately 273.8 million from 275.6 million.

(WhaleWisdom)

Encouraging Estimates Beyond 2020

Analysts estimate that Hilton’s revenue will plunge in 2020 by approximately 48%. Fortunately, revenue is forecast to rebound in 2021 by 55.8% to $7.66 billion and an additional 19.9% in 2022. Meanwhile, earnings are forecast to drop 92% in 2020 to $0.32 per share and then jump to $2.36 in 2021 and $3.58 in 2022.

Optimistic Forecasts

Analysts like UBS Investment Bank are optimistic about the stock, keeping a Buy rating and giving Hilton a price target of $104. Additionally, PIMCO Investment Management’s chief investment officer (CIO) also has a positive attitude towards companies like Hilton, as they believe the travel and tourism sector will ride out the pandemic.

Hope for Hilton

Hilton’s long-term earnings growth and future estimates are encouraging for investors, with optimistic analysts anticipating a rebound from the pandemic within two to three years. While this does not eliminate the uncertainty of the pandemic’s end and the dark cloud it created over the hospitality industry, there’s hope for this hospitality giant after a rough start to the year.

If the industry can recover as many analysts expect, then hedge funds may find themselves on the winning side of this trade.

Adobe is a multinational computer software company offering a variety of multimedia and creativity software products, with revenue segments including digital media, digital experience, and legacy publishing products.

Adobe appears to have been minimally affected by the coronavirus pandemic, while many other companies and industries have seen a negative impact. More recently, investors have noted that Adobe is benefitting from the shift to telecommuting, as there has been a higher demand for digital products such as Document Cloud, which includes Acrobat PDF, Scan, and Sign products.

WhaleWisdom Results

Adobe was added to the WhaleWisdom WhaleIndex 100 on August 16, 2020. However, despite Adobe’s improved performance in 2020 to date, hedge funds and institutions overall were selling the stock in the second quarter, causing Adobe to slip on the WhaleWisdom Heat Map to a ranking of 36 from a previous ranking of 18. Adobe saw its stock value increase as businesses have been driven by the pandemic to increase remote work and collaboration dramatically.

(WhaleWisdom)

Uninspired Hedge Funds Despite Earnings

Adobe has more recently left hedge fund managers and institutions feeling lukewarm. Looking at activity by the top hedge funds in the second quarter, the aggregate holdings decreased to about 84.7 million from 90.5 million, a mild decrease of approximately 6.4%. Of the hedge funds, 51 created new positions, 123 added to an existing one, 46 exited, and 134 reduced their holdings. Institutions were also selling, lowering 13F shares to 400.7 million from 406.3 million, a decrease of about 1.4%.

(WhaleWisdom)

Encouraging Multi-year Growth

Analysts have optimistic revenue and earnings estimates for the next several years, with expectations that earnings will rise year-over-year from 2020 through to 2023. Increases range from approximately 14.1% in 2020 to 7.3% in 2023. These significant year-over-year growth estimates would bring earnings to $12.98 per share in 2023, up from $9.73 for 2020. Additionally, revenue is forecast to climb as well, rising to $18.2 billion by the year 2023 from estimates of around $12.8 billion in 2020.

Positive Overall Outlook

Adobe’s steady growth and future estimates are encouraging for investors. While Adobe continues to face its fair share of competition from other software and digital marketing companies, the digital media leader continues to see increased pandemic related demand for its products. That should help to drive the stock higher for some time to come.

Nvidia is a multinational technology company and the inventor of the graphics processing unit (GPU), a chip that’s popular in both gaming and professional markets. The company’s product line generates graphics on everything from business workstations and personal computers to mobile devices. While Nvidia saw a dip in performance in March and early April related to the coronavirus pandemic, the company has emerged stronger and has even started to utilize its GPU technology to assist research analysis on the coronavirus.

Hedge Funds and Institutions Are Active

Nvidia has received positive attention from both hedge funds and institutions and has been added to the WhaleWisdom WhaleIndex. Hedge funds increased their aggregate 13F shares held to approximately 166.2 million from about 151.1 million. Of hedge funds, 71 created new positions, 117 added to an existing one, 39 closed out their holdings, and 107 have exited. Institutions increased their aggregate holdings to about 422.4 million from 407.5 million.

(WhaleWisdom)

Encouraging Multi-year Estimates

Analysts expect to see earnings rise over the next three years, with increases in growth from 2021 to 2023 spanning from approximately 40.7% to 20.3%. These year-over-year estimated increases could bring earnings to $9.87 per share in 2022, up from $8.15 for 2021. The company will report its second-quarter 2021 results on August 19, 2020. Analysts estimate the company earned $1.97 per share, on revenue of $3.65 billion.

Analysts See Growth Potential

Rosenblatt Securities maintains a Buy rating on Nvidia, recognizing the potential for growth in gaming and data center niches. Nvidia is actively trying to acquire control over ARM Holdings from Softbank, which may bring along opportunities to increase Nvidia’s overall value. Cowen & Co.’s analyst, Matt Ramsay, views the datacenter as Nvidia’s largest franchise, with the potential for increased revenue in 2021. Cowen maintains an Outperform rating on the stock. However, Morgan Stanley’s analyst, Joseph Moore, recently expressed some uncertainty over the deal to acquire a majority position of ARM Holdings and maintains Nvidia’s stock at a market weight position.

Favorable Outlook

The future holds promise for Nvidia, as the company continues to weather the pandemic and maintain positive momentum. With primarily favorable estimates from analysts, along with institutions and hedge funds buying, other investors have good reason to remain optimistic.

DexCom is a medical device company focused on the development, manufacturing, and distribution of glucose monitoring systems for diabetes management. The company has received positive attention from diabetes patients due to DexCom’s G6 continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) system.

Making the Index

Given DexCom’s impressive performance, it is not surprising that the stock was added to the WhaleWisdom WhaleIndex 100. DexCom has a presence in the healthcare sector, and its latest CGM has appeal for being able to pare to smart devices to send customers alerts and minimize the need for fingersticks. With a healthcare product of this nature, it’s understandable that even the uncertainty of our current stock market has had little impact on DexCom’s value.

(WhaleWisdom)

Institutions Sell, While Hedge Funds Acquire

Institutions overall were selling the stock, but volume was minimal. The number of aggregate 13F shares decreased by approximately 0.9% as of Q1 2020, to roughly 89.4 million from about 90.2 million just three months earlier. For comparison, hedge funds increased their total 13F shares by about 1.7%, up to 35.5 million from 34.9 million.

(WhaleWisdom)

Analysts Share Favorable Forecasts

Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.’s, increased DexCom’s price target to $440 from $361 and maintains a Buy rating on shares, recognizing that the demand for new technology in diabetes management is high. Piper Sandler raised their price target to $450 from $375, while keeping an Overweight rating on the shares.

DexCom has seen its earnings rise in recent years, and now analysts are forecasting a significant increase in year-over-year growth for 2020, rising 51.9% to $2.17 per share. Meanwhile, revenue is forecast to grow by over 22% in 2020 to $1.79 billion.

Promise Lies Ahead

While DexCom isn’t cheap, trading for 121 times 2021 earnings estimates, there continues to be strong demand for the shares. DexCom’s climb onto the WhaleWhisdom Index supports this demand and gives hope for a sustained move higher. However, it should be noted that the restrictions on non-essential healthcare services during the Coronavirus pandemic have had a slightly negative impact on the volume of new customers for DexCom, but this is viewed as temporary. DexCom appears to have positioned itself to continue forward momentum through and beyond the pandemic. Current investors will likely maintain their stakes in DexCom, with new investors to come.

Taiwan Semi’s fourth quarter net profit beat estimates at $3.9 billion, with a healthy outlook, driven by the strong consumer demand for high-end smartphones and the fifth generation of wireless technology known as 5G ramping up.  For the quarter ending in March 2020, revenue is forecast to reach approximately $10.2 Billion, up from the prior year’s 7.1 Billion.

Placement into the WhaleWisdom 100

Given Taiwan Semi’s impressive performance, it’s no surprise that investors started buying the stock in the third quarter.  This resulted in the equity being added to the WhaleWisdom WhaleIndex 100 index in the middle of November and is a sign that investors recognize the opportunities that Taiwan Semi presents.

Hedge Funds Acquire More

At the end of the third quarter, 77 hedge funds held the stock, with 11 holding the shares among their top ten.  The number of 13F shares rose as 15 hedge funds created new positions and eight funds reduced their holdings. Meanwhile, 30 funds added to their positions while 26 reduced them.  Overall, the aggregate 13F shares held by hedge funds increased by approximately 6.5% to 159 million shares from 149 million shares in the prior quarter.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Continue

One reason why investors may be looking to get involved in Taiwan Semi is an upward trend in revenue and earnings growth. Currently, analysts’ estimate earnings growth of 20.3% in 2020 to $2.87 per share and revenue growth of 20% to $42.9 billion.

Despite strong earnings and revenue growth, the stock isn’t cheap on a historical basis, trading for roughly 18.5 times one-year forward earnings estimates, its highest valuation since 2016.  Over that time, the stock has historically traded in a range of 9 to 15. However, if the earnings and revenue growth persist, when adjusting that earnings multiple for growth, the shares appear to be a bargain, trading with a growth adjusted PEG ratio of less than 1 and making shares cheap. However, it also means that for the stock to maintain that upward momentum, the company will need to continue to deliver impressive growth, perhaps even at an accelerating pace to keep the stock price moving higher in the future.

The strong performance has resulted in the stock’s addition to the WhaleWisdom WhaleIndex 100 on November 15. Additionally, the shares have been on the WhaleWisdom Heatmap for two quarters in a row. The heatmap evaluates the portfolios of the top 150 hedge funds using the Whalescore calculation.

Investors Are Staying Optimistic

Broadcom’s ranking on the Heatmap fell to 98 in the third quarter from 45 in the second quarter. The reason for the decline in the ranking is likely because the number of top hedge funds in the third quarter increasing their holdings were 11, versus nine that were decreasing their positions. However, 19 funds held the stock in their portfolio, while 2 had the shares as top-10 holding, a strong showing.

Overall, the aggregate number of 13F shares fell by approximately 2.5% in the third quarter to roughly 329 million shares. During the most recent quarter, 515 institutions added to their positions, while  444 decreased their holdings. In total, 95 firms established new stakes and 90 closed their positions out.

(WhaleWisdom)

Earnings Are Coming

The company is expected to report fiscal fourth quarter 2019 results on December 12. The results tend to be widely followed by investors, as those results tend to give investors an intra-quarter peek into how other semiconductor businesses may be performing. It is not expected to be a strong quarter for the company, with earnings estimated to have declined by more than 8% to $5.36 per share, while revenue is forecast to have climbed by 6% to almost $5.8 billion.

Valuation Is Reasonable

Still, the company trades with a reasonable valuation at just 12 times 2021 earnings estimates of $26.02. That isn’t bad for a company with forecasts to see earnings rebound in 2020 by 10% to $21.28 per share, and by an additional 10% in 2021 to $26.02.

Despite the stock’s significant advance in 2019, the shares are still trading at the low to mid-range of its PE ratio. Since 2015, the PE ratio has traded in a range of 10 to 15. It could be one reason why investors are betting so heavily on Broadcom’s stock, and why the stock may continue to rise over the longer-term.

The was stock was also added to the WhaleWisdom WhaleIndex 100 on August 15, following the hedge fund activity in the second quarter. But more recently, the analyst community has become very positive on the stock.

Hedge Funds Buy

During the second quarter, the total number of 13F shares increased by almost 12% to about 26.1 million shares. Overall, 21 funds created a new position in the stock, while 17 increased their positions. Meanwhile, nine funds closed their holdings as 20 reduced them. However, despite the optimism among hedge funds, the total number of 13F held by all institutions fell by over 3% to 111.26 million.

(Whale Wisdom)

Analysts Lift Targets

The stock’s struggles have continued in the weeks following the conclusion of the second quarter, with shares falling by roughly 8% through September 30. The lower price has resulted in the analyst community growing more bullish on the equity.

The average analysts’ price target on the stock has increased to $76.20, which is roughly 34.3% higher than the stock’s current price of $56.75 on October 4. The current price is about 2.7% higher than average price target of $74.23 on July 1. Also, the number of analysts rating the stock a buy or outperform has increased to 14 from 9 over that time. Additionally, the number of analysts rating the stock as a hold as dropped to 2 from 6. There are currently no analysts that rate the shares an underperform or sell, which remains unchanged.

Reasons to be Optimistic

One reason why investors and analysts may be getting more bullish is that the company has recently launched free shipping on purchases of more than $35 from the same merchant.  Additionally, the company agreed to purchase Reverb Holdings for $275 million in July. Reverb is an online marketplace for new, used and vintage musical gear.

Etsy’s shares have bounced back some since the beginning of September. When updated holdings start coming out in November, it should reveal if hedge fund investors were still buying the stock during the third quarter pullback, or if they were selling as the analyst community became more bullish.